Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
