Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
