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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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